The Central Bank has outlined the main risks that could impact Uzbekistan's inflation and economic growth in 2025. These findings are detailed in the monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of 2024.

"In the first half of 2025, inflation will be influenced by seasonal factors, monetary conditions, macroeconomic stability, and a decline in inflation expectations," the report states.

According to the Central Bank, the rise of protectionist policies worldwide and the tightening of trade restrictions may disrupt global supply chains. This could reverse the current trend of declining global inflation, increasing the likelihood of prolonged inflationary pressure.

Additionally, ongoing geopolitical crises could further drive up prices for raw materials and food products. In particular, rising global prices may put additional pressure on domestic prices in Uzbekistan in the future.

The report also highlights internal risks, including high investment activity and significant growth in real household incomes, which could continue to fuel consumer demand and, in turn, heighten inflationary risks.

A temporary increase in overall inflation is expected in April 2025. According to updated forecasts, inflation is projected to reach approximately 7-8% by the end of 2025.